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FIRST DOWN CENTRAL / NFL DATA LAB

Predictions & Odds.

Our independently calculated NFL win probabilities beside sourced bookmaker prices. Two different numbers, clearly labeled. No invented lines or promises of guaranteed winners.

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UPCOMING NFL MATCHUPS

Week 10 forecast board

ModelFDC Elo v12026 NFL forecast engine
Held-out winner accuracy 64.2% 854 games · 2023–2025
2026 accuracy so far 64.4% 135 decided games
Model last calculatedWed, Nov 11 at 02:33 AM EST136 2026 results cross-checked

Live forecast record: Predictions recorded from November 11, 2026; no games graded yet. This is separate from historical backtesting.

Bookmaker lines currently unavailable. Our independently calculated probabilities remain displayed. We never substitute our model’s fair odds for actual sportsbook quotes.

WEEK 10 · Thu, Nov 12 at 08:15 PM EST

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

MODEL PICK · New York Giants
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Washington Commanders35.1%
New York Giants64.8%
Model fair moneyline · away+185
Model fair moneyline · home-185

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 09:30 AM EST

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

MODEL PICK · Detroit Lions
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
New England Patriots40.1%
Detroit Lions59.9%
Model fair moneyline · away+149
Model fair moneyline · home-149

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 01:00 PM EST

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

MODEL PICK · Buffalo Bills
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Buffalo Bills84.4%
New York Jets15.6%
Model fair moneyline · away-541
Model fair moneyline · home+541

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 01:00 PM EST

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

MODEL PICK · New Orleans Saints
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Carolina Panthers45.5%
New Orleans Saints54.5%
Model fair moneyline · away+120
Model fair moneyline · home-120

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 01:00 PM EST

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

MODEL PICK · Houston Texans
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Houston Texans56.8%
Cleveland Browns43.2%
Model fair moneyline · away-132
Model fair moneyline · home+132

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 01:00 PM EST

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

MODEL PICK · Jacksonville Jaguars
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Jacksonville Jaguars83.1%
Tennessee Titans16.9%
Model fair moneyline · away-490
Model fair moneyline · home+490

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 01:00 PM EST

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

MODEL PICK · Kansas City Chiefs
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Kansas City Chiefs62.1%
Atlanta Falcons37.9%
Model fair moneyline · away-164
Model fair moneyline · home+164

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 01:00 PM EST

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

MODEL PICK · Indianapolis Colts
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Miami Dolphins40.6%
Indianapolis Colts59.4%
Model fair moneyline · away+146
Model fair moneyline · home-146

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 01:00 PM EST

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

MODEL PICK · Green Bay Packers
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Minnesota Vikings45.1%
Green Bay Packers54.9%
Model fair moneyline · away+122
Model fair moneyline · home-122

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 04:05 PM EST

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

MODEL PICK · Los Angeles Rams
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Los Angeles Rams72.4%
Arizona Cardinals27.6%
Model fair moneyline · away-262
Model fair moneyline · home+262

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 04:05 PM EST

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

MODEL PICK · Seattle Seahawks
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Seattle Seahawks72.4%
Las Vegas Raiders27.6%
Model fair moneyline · away-262
Model fair moneyline · home+262

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 04:25 PM EST

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

MODEL PICK · San Francisco 49ers
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
San Francisco 49ers66.4%
Dallas Cowboys33.6%
Model fair moneyline · away-198
Model fair moneyline · home+198

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Sun, Nov 15 at 08:20 PM EST

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

MODEL PICK · Cincinnati Bengals
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Pittsburgh Steelers43.4%
Cincinnati Bengals56.6%
Model fair moneyline · away+130
Model fair moneyline · home-130

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

WEEK 10 · Mon, Nov 16 at 08:15 PM EST

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

MODEL PICK · Baltimore Ravens
FDC FORECAST Calculated, not a bookmaker quote
Los Angeles Chargers30.9%
Baltimore Ravens69.1%
Model fair moneyline · away+224
Model fair moneyline · home-224

Fair odds are mathematical conversions of our probabilities. They exclude bookmaker margin and are not available wagers.

BOOKMAKER MARKET Actual sourced quotes
No current bookmaker quote for this matchup.

The market feed may not yet cover this game or the stored quote is too old. No substitute line is shown.

OUR METHOD

How the numbers are made

1. Historical games

The model trains sequentially on completed NFL results, dating to 1999, using independently published nflverse data. It never uses a game's result to predict that same game.

2. Team strength

Our first version uses Elo ratings, home-field advantage, offseason regression and margin-of-victory adjustments. It does not yet include a quantitative injury or quarterback model.

3. Actual bookmaker prices

Bookmaker moneylines, spreads and totals come separately from The Odds API. Prices show their source and update time; quotes disappear when too old. Our fair odds are never represented as a sportsbook line.

4. Auditable performance

The reported 2023–2025 result is an out-of-sample historical backtest, not a live betting record. We will track forecasts made before kickoff against later final scores as the site operates.

Source attribution: nflverse NFL game data (CC BY 4.0). Bookmaker quotes: The Odds API. Market information is for informational purposes only; First Down Central does not accept wagers. No projection guarantees any outcome.